No Scenario Planning Kills Organizations

No Scenario Planning kill organizations. The Swedish petroleum company, Preem, among others, is in trouble after canceling a new initiative that was never meant to be. This is an example of what scenario planning is imperative.

A positive mistake

Normally we avoid commenting on individual companies, but this is a matter of public interest, and will go down in history as a large and unnecessary mistake. However, it is a mistake with positive effects for the planet. I have worked with some of the largest petroleum companies in the world, and it is sad to see how a Swedish company, based not far from where I was born, can so completely fail to map out scenarios for (1) its own finances and company value, and (2) Planet Earth.

Scenario Planning

Scenario Planning – from Alice’s Adventures in Wonderland


Here is a piece of advice. Have a look at the scenario planning that is undertaken by all the successful energy and petroleum companies today. Long ago, they all changed their business models toward renewable solutions. However, this on its own is not sufficient. They must employ scenarios for the year to come, as today’s models are already under disruption. Saying this, many other oil and gas companies are in trouble, while Shell and BP, which have worked with scenario planning for the last 40 years, are on top of matters.





Fast analysis of the innovation capabilities in the Energy, Petroleum, Oil, Gas, Mining, and Quarrying business.

This morning we did a quick analysis, using our database and AI, and also noticed how the GAP in the energy sector, and in mining and quarrying and oil & gas, is growing rapidly in capabilities for innovation.

So it is not just scenario planning (linked to aspirations and strategic thinking) that differs in the industry. It is also the ability to cope with innovation, change, and uncertainty.

Based on the pattern we see, it is a not unlikely prediction that the oil, gas, energy, mining, and quarrying industries will be dissipated and destroyed, and that a new sustainable industry will emerge. I would welcome this as an inhabitant of the world, but at the same time, I worry that it would have consequences such as political instability and high rates of unemployment. The industry would do well to take a step back and learn how companies should be managed in such circumstances. They can then get back in the saddle for the change and innovation needed yesterday, today, and for the future.

Read more here

At your disposal, we provide you with a few good links to learn more.